Validation of the Baveno VI and the expanded Baveno VI criteria to identify patients who could avoid screening endoscopy

Background & Aims: The Baveno VI and the expanded Baveno VI criteria were proposed to help identify patients who could safely avoid screening endoscopies for clinically significant varices among patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease. However, these criteria require cross-validation, especially in Asian populations where the aetiologies of liver disease are different. Methods: A total of 1035 patients, including 282 patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease of different aetiology, were analysed. The compensated advanced chronic liver disease was defined by liver stiffness measurement ≥10 kPa, Child-Pugh class A and absence of prior liver decompensation. High-risk varix was defined as a grade ≥2 oesophageal varix, any varix with a red colour sign or gastric varices. Results: High-risk varixs were present in 19.5% (55/282 patients) with compensated advanced chronic liver disease. Among compensated advanced chronic liver disease patients, the expanded criteria could spare more endoscopies (51.7%) than the original criteria (27.6%). However, the expanded criteria missed a greater number of high-risk varixs (6.8%) than the original criteria (3.8%). When stratified according to liver disease aetiology, the negative predictive values for the original Baveno VI criteria were 0.92, 1.00, 1.00 and 1.00, and the negative predictive values for the expanded criteria were 0.92, 0.96, 0.92 and 0.93 for hepatitis B, hepatitis C, alcohol and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, respectively. High-risk varixs were rarely detected in patients without compensated advanced chronic liver disease (1.1%, 8/753 patients). Conclusions: In this Asian cohort study, the Baveno VI criteria were able to identify who could safely avoid screening endoscopy. The expanded Baveno VI criteria could spare more endoscopies but also could increase the odds of missing a high-risk varix.