Urban Mobile Data Prediction with Geospatial Clustering and Dual Residual Learning

The mobile network traffic patterns in urban areas significantly diverge depending on commercial and residential establishments. These regional traffic patterns provide crucial clues for predicting traffic patterns precisely. Previous studies have employed a combination of time-series and convolutional Deep Learning (DL) models to effectively capture the correlation of the regional features and traffic patterns. Despite promising results, these approaches are limited in identifying pattern similarities among sparsely located regions and can be further improved. To this end, this study proposes a GEospatial clustering and residual COnvolutional temporal long Short-term memory (GECOS) framework consisting of clustering and DL components. The proposed Urbanflow Peak Clustering (UPC) component exploits the peak traffic times of daily mobile data to obtain the groups of cells with similar traffic patterns apart from their geographical diversity. The UPC improves the scalability of existing algorithms and enables DL components to improve their accuracy by recognizing unique regional patterns and localizing the training targets. The proposed Residual Convolutional TCN-LSTM (RCTL) serves as the DL component of GECOS that improves TCN-LSTM structure through layer-wise feature transfer and enhances long-term dependency learnability. The RCTL ensures more accurate capturing of extensive spatiotemporal features through structural enhancements. The experiments conducted on real-world mobile traffic data showcase 43% improvement by GECOS compared to state-of-the-art models, enabling precise traffic engineering policies by operators.