The Power of Voice: Monetary Policy and Cryptocurrency

This paper investigates how nonverbal elements of central bank communication—specifically, the vocal tone of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairs during Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conferences—shape cryptocurrency market behavior across different phases of the business cycle. Using vocal tone measures extracted from speech audio and controlling for the Fed's textual sentiment and policy actions, we find that tone conveys information beyond what is contained in the Chair's words. A more positive vocal tone raises cryptocurrency prices during economic expansions but has the opposite effect during contractions. These asymmetric responses suggest that, in stable economic conditions, an optimistic tone strengthens investor confidence and encourages greater risk-taking, whereas during downturns, heightened uncertainty and risk aversion dominate, leading market participants to shift away from speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies. Overall, our findings reveal that nonverbal communication functions as a meaningful and state-dependent channel through which monetary policy affects the cryptocurrency market.