The addition of mifamurtide to chemotherapy improves lifetime effectiveness in children with osteosarcoma: a Markov model analysis

In the absence of long-term clinical trials that compare mifamurtide plus chemotherapy versus chemotherapy only for treatment of osteosarcoma, decision analysis is a useful tool that helps to determine the optimal treatment strategy. We analyzed the differences between mifamurtide plus chemotherapy versus chemotherapy only by using modeling to determine the treatment approach that results in longer life expectancy among children with osteosarcoma. We used the Markov model to compare the expected lifetime quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) between mifamurtide plus chemotherapy versus chemotherapy only. Our target cohort consisted of children with osteosarcoma. The starting age of the cohort was 12 years and cycle length was 3 months. The transition probabilities for each disease state and death were calculated using overall survival or progression free survival data from randomized controlled trials. Utility weights from scenario-based survey for 303 Korean general populations were applied to the model. Based on the base case analysis, the incremental benefit analysis indicated that mifamurtide plus chemotherapy resulted in an incremental QALY increase of 1.57 (a relative increase of 16.3 % in QALY expectancy) compared to chemotherapy only. Also, the incremental life years gained (LYG) from mifamurtide plus chemotherapy was 1.96 on comparison with chemotherapy only; this is a relative increase of 15.7 % in LYG expectancy. The decision analysis model indicated that mifamurtide plus chemotherapy was associated with a substantially longer survival than chemotherapy only among children with osteosarcoma during their lifetime.