Subtypes of Patients with Mild to Moderate Airflow Limitation as Predictors of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbation

COPD is a heterogeneous disease, and its acute exacerbation is a major prognostic factor. We used cluster analysis to predict COPD exacerbation due to subtypes of mild–moderate airflow limitation. In all, 924 patients from the Korea COPD Subgroup Study cohort, with a forced expiratory volume (FEV1) ≥ 50% and documented age, body mass index (BMI), smoking status, smoking pack-years, COPD assessment test (CAT) score, predicted post-bronchodilator FEV1, were enrolled. Four groups, putative chronic bronchitis (n = 224), emphysema (n = 235), young smokers (n = 248), and near normal (n = 217), were identified. The chronic bronchitis group had the highest BMI, and the one with emphysema had the oldest age, lowest BMI, and highest smoking pack-years. The young smokers group had the youngest age and the highest proportion of current smokers. The near-normal group had the highest proportion of never-smokers and near-normal lung function. When compared with the near-normal group, the emphysema group had a higher risk of acute exacerbation (OR: 1.93, 95% CI: 1.29–2.88). However, multiple logistic regression showed that chronic bronchitis (OR: 2.887, 95% CI: 1.065–8.192), predicted functional residual capacity (OR: 1.023, 95% CI: 1.007–1.040), fibrinogen (OR: 1.004, 95% CI: 1.001–1.008), and gastroesophageal reflux disease were independent predictors of exacerbation (OR: 2.646, 95% CI: 1.142–6.181). The exacerbation-susceptible subtypes require more aggressive prevention strategies.