Risk score for postoperative complications in thoracic surgery

Background: Risk scoring system for thoracic surgery patients have not been widely used, as of recently. We tried to forge a risk scoring system that predicts the risk of postoperative complications in patients undergoing major thoracic surgery. We used a prolonged ICU stay as a representative of postoperative complications and tested various possible risk factors for its relation. Methods: Data from all patients who underwent major lung and esophageal cancer surgeries, between 2005 and 2007 in our hospital, were collected retrospectively (n = 858). Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed with various possible risk factors to build the risk scoring system for prolonged ICU stay (> 3 days). Results: A total of 9% of patients exhibited more than 3 days of ICU stay. Age, operation name, preoperative lung injury, no epidural analgesia, and predicted post operative forced expiratory volume in 1 second (ppoFEV1) were the risk factors for prolonged ICU stay, by multivariable analysis (P < 0.05). Risk score, p was derived from the formula: logit(p/[1-p]) = -5.39 + 0.06 × age + 1.12 × operation name(2) + 1.52 × operation name(3) + 1.32 × operation name(4) + 1.56 × operation name(5) + 1.30 × preoperative lung injury + 0.72 × no epidural analgesia - 0.02 × ppoFEV1 [Age in years, operation name(2): pneumonectomy, operation name(3): esophageal cancer operation, operation name(4): completion pneumonectomy, operation name(5): extended operation, preoperative lung injury(+), epidural analgesia(-), ppoFEV1 in %]. Conclusions: Age, operation name, preoperative lung injury, epidural analgesia, and ppoFEV1 can predict postoperative morbidity in thoracic surgery patients.