Risk-Likelihood Perceptions and Preventive Behaviors Against Infectious Diseases: Testing Different Types of Risk-Likelihood Perceptions in the Context of MERS and COVID-19

Effective public health communication should take into the consideration how communicated risk perceptions might influence the public. Although many health behavior theories claim that high perceived risk likelihood motivates preventive health behaviors, this general prediction is complicated by different ways of estimating risk likelihood. Our review of 14 previous studies on perceived risk of infectious diseases revealed different measures of risk likelihood and inconsistent findings regarding the relationship between perceived risk likelihood and behavioral intention. Drawn from the review, we examined the predictive power of different types of risk likelihood on intention to prevent infectious diseases. Using two separate data sets, collected during the 2015 outbreak of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (N = 557) and the COVID-19 pandemic of 2021 (N = 1,001), we demonstrated that perceived risk likelihood that specifies future inaction on health behaviors (i.e., conditional absolute risk perception) better predicted behavioral intention than did other types of risk perceptions. When the effect of conditional absolute risk perception was controlled, the behavioral intention and unconditional absolute risk perception showed a negative relationship. The findings have theoretical and practical implications that can inform strategic communication during future outbreaks.