Risk factors of metachronous recurrence after endoscopic submucosal dissection for superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Esophageal endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) can be a curative treatment for superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SESCC). However, it is unclear whether the development of metachronous recurrence after ESD may be explained based on several risk factors. This study aimed to assess the incidence and the risk factors of metachronous recurrence of SESCC after ESD. This retrospective analysis was conducted at Samsung Medical Center, Seoul, Korea, from April 2007 to May 2018. Two hundred and fifty-three SESCC patients treated with ESD were followed using surveillance endoscopy after the procedure. Risk factors for metachronous esophageal SCC were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox’s proportional hazards model. Metachronous esophageal SCCs were found in 21 (8.3%) of the 253 patients. Six patients (2.4%) with extraesophageal recurrence such as lymph node metastasis confirmed by imaging were excluded from patients with metachronous recurrence and data were censored from the recurrence date. Univariate analysis revealed that the presence of many (>10) irregularly shaped multiform Lugol-voiding lesions (LVLs) around the main lesion, margin of the main LVL, and tumor differentiation were risk factors for the development of metachronous cancer. Multivariate analysis also revealed that many (>10) LVLs (hazard ratio [HR], 6.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.62–24.72; p = 0.047) and unclear or spiculated margin of the main LVL (HR, 6.51; 95% CI, 1.44–29.42; p = 0.029) were associated with the risk of metachronous recurrence. Metachronous esophageal SCC develops in patients treated with ESD for SESCC. A risk assessment is important for surveillance before and after ESD for SESCC. Number of LVLs and tumor edge type are associated with an increased risk of metachronous cancer in SESCC. Patients will benefit from careful endoscopic surveillance when endoscopists pay attention to these tumor characteristics.