Readiness-based probabilistic multi-criteria assessment of hydrogen value chains: Prioritizing feasible pathways for a sustainable transition

A realistic transition to a hydrogen economy requires a careful evaluation of hydrogen supply pathways to identify practical and sustainable options. This study proposes a readiness-based probabilistic multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework that combines cognitive mapping, analytic network process (ANP), Monte Carlo simulation, and TOPSIS. It evaluated 32 hydrogen pathways based on six main criteria: maturity, affordability, reliability, safety, commercialization, and adaptability. The framework was applied to a nationwide case study in South Korea, using detailed techno-economic and environmental data. Monte Carlo simulation was used to reflect uncertainty in future technical and economic conditions. The results show that blue hydrogen from steam methane reforming with carbon capture and storage, combined with gas-phase storage and pipeline transport, is the best pathway. It offers a cost of $3.17/kg H₂ and emissions of 5.3 kg CO₂/kg H₂, making it suitable for large-scale use. Green hydrogen from renewable ammonia and electrolysis shows long-term potential but faces high costs ($9.63 and $8.65/kg H₂) and moderate emissions (3.4 and 5.1 kg CO₂/kg H₂). The proposed method supports robust evaluation of hydrogen pathways, helping to balance cost, emissions, and system readiness in national hydrogen strategies.