Non-Invasive Risk Assessment and Prediction of Mortality in Patients Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery

Objectives: Heart rate turbulence (HRT) and T-wave alternans (TWA), non-invasive markers of cardiac autonomic dysfunction, and ventricular repolarization abnormality, reportedly, predict the risk of cardiovascular death after myocardial infarction. We investigated whether pre-operative assessment of HRT and/or TWA could predict long-term mortality following coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. Methods: From May 2010 to December 2017, patients undergoing elective CABG and receiving 24 h ambulatory electrocardiogram monitoring 1 to 5 days prior to CABG surgery were prospectively enrolled. Pre-operative HRT and TWA were measured using a 24 h ambulatory electrocardiogram. The relative risk of cardiac or overall death was assessed according to abnormalities of HRT, TWA, or left ventricular ejection fraction (LV EF). Results: During the mean follow-up period of 4.6 (Formula presented.) 3.9 years, 40 adjudicated overall (5.9%/yr) and 5 cardiac deaths (0.9%/yr) occurred in 146 enrolled patients (64.9 (Formula presented.) 9.3 years; 108 males). Patients with abnormal HRT exhibited significantly higher relative risks of cardiac death (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 24.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.46–427) and all-cause death (adjusted HR 5.77, 95% CI 2.34–14.2) compared to those with normal HRT. Moreover, abnormal HRT plus abnormal TWA and LV EF < 50% was associated with a greater elevation in cardiac and overall mortality risk. The predictive role of abnormal HRT with/without abnormal TWA for all-cause death was likely more prominent in patients with mildly reduced (35 to 50%) or preserved (≥50%) LV EF. Abnormal HRT plus abnormal TWA and LV EF < 50% showed high negative predictive value in cardiac and overall mortality risk. Conclusions: Assessment of pre-operative HRT and/or TWA predicted mortality risk in patients undergoing elective CABG. Combined analysis of HRT, TWA, and LVEF enhanced the prognostic power. In particular, the predictive value of HRT was enhanced in patients with preserved or mid-range LV EF.