Longitudinal BMI change and outcomes in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: a nationwide population-based cohort study

Background: The association between longitudinal body mass index (BMI) change and clinical outcomes in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has not fully investigated. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 116,463 COPD patients aged ≥ 40, with at least two health examinations, one within 2 years before and another within 3 years after COPD diagnosis (January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2019). Associations between BMI percentage change with all-cause mortality, primary endpoint, and initial severe exacerbation were assessed. Results: BMI decreased > 5% in 14,728 (12.6%), while maintained in 80,689 (69.2%), and increased > 5% in 21,046 (18.1%) after COPD diagnosis. Compared to maintenance group, adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for all-cause mortality was 1.70 in BMI decrease group (95% CI:1.61, 1.79) and 1.13 in BMI increase group (95% CI:1.07, 1.20). In subgroup analysis, decrease in BMI showed a stronger effect on mortality as baseline BMI was lower, while an increase in BMI was related to an increase in mortality only in obese COPD patients with aHRs of 1.18 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.36). The aHRs for the risk of severe exacerbation (BMI decrease group and increase group vs. maintenance group) were 1.30 (95% CI:1.24, 1.35) and 1.12 (95% CI:1.07, 1.16), respectively. Conclusions: A decrease in BMI was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality in a dose-dependent manner in patients with COPD. This was most significant in underweight patients. Regular monitoring for weight loss might be an important component for COPD management.