Liquidity-adjusted value-at-risk: a comprehensive extension with microstructural liquidity components

This study constructs an extended value-at-risk model that incorporates all microstructural liquidity components using a high-quality tick-by-tick index options market dataset. Out-of-sample backtesting and mean-difference analyses suggest that the traditional value-at-risk measure significantly underestimates investors’ potential losses relative to our new liquidity-adjusted measure. Logistic regressions reveal that ex-ante market illiquidity increases violations of liquidity-adjusted value-at-risk and that these violations are often driven by foreign institutional investors.