History Rhymes: The Shou-Fang Cycle in Chinese Politics

Scholars have recognized an oscillating pattern of political tightening and loosening in China’s political orientation, also known as the shou-fang cycle. Despite frequent references, the concept has not been subjected to scholarly scrutiny. This study critically examines the concept of the shou-fang cycle and discusses its utility in the study of Chinese politics. I argue that the shou-fang cycle should be understood as a historical concept rather than a theoretical one. The shou-fang cycle entails the problems of complex multicausality and the uncertainty of factional politics to be used for causal analysis. However, it still provides valuable insights into Chinese politics and can be utilized to formulate more hypotheses than would be possible otherwise. It provides historical context for the structural challenges that Xi Jinping has been faced with in particular. Building on Gaddis’ and other literature that compare political science and history, this interdisciplinary study contributes to advancing the dialogue between the two fields.