Explainable Multi-Layer Dynamic Ensemble Framework Optimized for Depression Detection and Severity Assessment

Background: Depression is a pervasive mental health condition, particularly affecting older adults, where early detection and intervention are essential to mitigate its impact. This study presents an explainable multi-layer dynamic ensemble framework designed to detect depression and assess its severity, aiming to improve diagnostic precision and provide insights into contributing health factors. Methods: Using data from the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project (NSHAP), this framework combines classical machine learning models, static ensemble methods, and dynamic ensemble selection (DES) approaches across two stages: detection and severity prediction. The depression detection stage classifies individuals as normal or depressed, while the severity prediction stage further classifies depressed cases as mild or moderate-severe. Finally, a confirmation depression scale prediction model estimates depression severity scores to support the two stages. Explainable AI (XAI) techniques are applied to improve model interpretability, making the framework more suitable for clinical applications. Results: The framework’s FIRE-KNOP DES algorithm demonstrated high efficacy, achieving 88.33% accuracy in depression detection and 83.68% in severity prediction. XAI analysis identified mental and non-mental health indicators as significant factors in the framework’s performance, emphasizing the value of these features for accurate depression assessment. Conclusions: This study emphasizes the potential of dynamic ensemble learning in mental health assessments, particularly in detecting and evaluating depression severity. The findings provide a strong foundation for future use of dynamic ensemble frameworks in mental health assessments, demonstrating their potential for practical clinical applications.