Creating an index of floods vulnerability to climate change for Korean fundamental local governments: The effect of the four major rivers restoration project as an adaptation strategy

Vulnerability assessment plays an important role in drawing up climate change adaptation plans. Although there are some studies on broad vulnerability assessment in Korea, there have been very few studies to develop and apply locally focused and specific sector-oriented climate change vulnerability indicators. Especially, there has seldom been any study to investigate the effect of an adaptation project on assessing the vulnerability status to climate change for fundamental local governments. The objective of this study is to create an index of flood vulnerability to climate change for the Korean fundamental local governments. The quantification of local vulnerabilities and the identification of the components degrading the vulnerability index would help fundamental local governments and the central government set up sound adaptation strategies. In this study, the modified climate change vulnerability index, which was originally proposed by Moss et al. (2001), is adjusted for the Korean context since the original version is not applicable to assess locally-focused and specific sector-oriented vulnerabilities in Korea. The conceptual framework of floods vulnerability to climate change for the Korean fundamental local governments is defined as a function of climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Then, statistical data on scores of proxy variables assumed to comprise climate change vulnerability for local governments are collected. The final inventory of proxy variables is determined by Delphi technique. The selected variables are standardized using the dimension index suggested by UNDP (2006). A vulnerability-resilience indicator (VRI) is calculated using Moss et al. (2001)¡^- s method. Data on casualty due to extreme weather by Korea National Emergency Management Agency and VRI will be compared to verify the proposed VRI. As an application result, the effect of the four major rivers restoration project as a climate change adaptation strategy will be presented. Such a massive South Korean project to dam and dredge four major rivers has given rise to intense arguments from scientists as well as public communities. Projections of future climate information and vulnerabilities and quantitative evaluation of the effectiveness of ongoing project or counter plans for each fundamental local government would also help draw up short-to long-term adaptation strategies.