Brachial-Ankle Pulse Wave Velocity as a Predictor of Diabetes Development: Elevated Risk Within Normal Range Values in a Low-Risk Population

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have suggested that increased brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) is a risk factor for diabetes. Exploring its relationship with insulin resistance is of interest, necessitating further studies across different sexes and age groups. METHODS AND RESULTS: This cohort study involved 119 170 Korean adults with an average age of 39.8 years, none of whom had diabetes at baseline. As part of a health screening, baPWV measurements were taken. Over a median follow-up period of 5.6 years, fasting blood glucose, glycated hemoglobin, insulin levels, and questionnaire responses were collected. The risk of developing diabetes was evaluated using a flexible parametric proportional hazards model with data stratified by sex and age group (<40 versus ≥40 years). During the follow-up period, diabetes was diagnosed in 5966 participants (5.0%). A fully adjusted model found that the hazard ratios for diabetes onset associated with baPWV quartiles Q2 (1171.0–1270.5 cm/s), Q3 (1271.0–1376.0 cm/s), and Q4 (≥1376.5 cm/s) compared with Q1 (<1171.0 cm/s) were 1.06 (95% CI, 0.96–1.17), 1.25 (1.14–1.38), and 1.48 (1.34–1.62), respectively (P for trend <0.001). A significant sex-based interaction was noted in this association, with women showing a higher risk of diabetes development. Furthermore, higher baPWV quartiles were associated with an increased risk of developing insulin resistance, defined as the homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the importance of arterial stiffness, as measured by elevated baPWV, in the development of diabetes and insulin resistance. Notably, this study highlighted a strong association, particularly among women.